single data versus contextual knowledge
I was looking for a gas station as my fuel tank was becoming empty. The price of unleaded fuel was 1.81 chf per liter in the gas station nearby. It sounded expensive, or, at least, I believed I had seen it cheaper around. But I was not sure. I was not so attentive as I was not looking for fuel at this moment.
And then I thought about what I knew based on my previous experience. This specific gas station has always been the cheapest in the area for years. This meant that the probability was high that it was still the case and that unleaded fuel would have costed more anywhere else around.
So I decided to trust my experience and knowledge.
And I was right, when comparing with the other ones I have been passing by later in the same day.
1.81 chf was a single data. It meant nothing without a context.
My understanding of the global system and my knowledge about where fuel has been the cheapest was contextual, based on multiple aggregated datas.
Systemic knowledge and understanding outperform* isolated information and datas on the long run.
Rules, formulas and knowledge allow us to focus our attention and ressources on more important things than collecting and remembering datas.
Then we can make better decisions.
*as long as Dunning-Kruger effect is not biaising the related skills and knowledge
